Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth

China has been keeping high economic growth rate since it carried out managed floating exchange rate regimes in 1994, while now begins to face retrenchment pressure brought by the depression of internal and external economy. The establishment of RMB exchange rate regime should take account of the validity of macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic growth and the regional internationalization of RMB.     

加强宏观调控深化金融改革

本文认为,我国去年以来的宏观调控取得了一定的成绩,但不能估计过高,一些深层次的问题并没有完全解决,还要继续努力,特别是要注意转变经济增长方式,真正提高经济增长的效益。宏观调控一定要总体考虑社会发展和经济发展之间的关系,中央和地方的关系,宏观和微观的关系,当前和长远的关系,农业、工业、服务业之间的关系,政府与企业和银行的关系等。这些都是影响宏观经济的大问题,都是要周密考虑的。文章指出,金融是现代经济的核心,而银行是金融的心脏,目前商业银行存在的效率低、资本充足率低,不良资产率高,内部管理、风险控制机制不健全,治理制度不完善,金融创新不足等问题,必须通过改革加以解决。     

A portfolio approach to a cross-sectoral and cross-national investment strategy in transition economies

This paper takes a systematic look at the portfolio choice problem faced by Investment Banks or Funds investing in transition economies. We relate the performance of projects in the transition economies to the broader macroeconomic and international environments, which affect the project through their input-output structures and financial balance sheets. Among the macroeconomic determinanst of enterprise behaviour are productivity growth, real wage growth, movements in the international terms of trade, shocks to the relative price of traded and non-traded goods, domestic and foreign interest rates, currency depreciation and the rate of inflaction. We evaluate the attractiveness of alternative investment strategies and provisioning rules from the perspective of portfoio theory.     

Managing capital flows in Poland, 1995-98

Poland has been encouraging foreign direct investment, including the purchase of company shares, but has been attempting to limit the inflow of speculative short-term capital. The policy so far has been effective without the use of any capital controls. The paper explains the policy and the reasons for its apparent success. The paper also discusses the evolving threats to macroeconomic stability of the Polish economy and policy responses to these threats.     

基于CGE框架下的央行宏观经济模型研究

在充分吸收CGE模型优势的基础上,我们结合央行宏观经济模型特点,对二者进行有机整合,使之为宏观经济分析和货币政策决策服务。借助该模型不仅可以进行总量分析,还能进行结构分析,从而可以较全面地剖析货币政策对经济的影响过程。     

China＇s Macroeconomic Development： Stages and Nonlinear Convergence

I. Introduction Since the second half of the 1990s, the Chinese economy has witnessed some unprecedented changes: a sharp increase in urban unemployment, stagnation of labor transfer from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors and serious deflation. All these changes indicate a significant departure from the previous development trajectory: sustained full employment in urban areas, rapid labor transfer from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors and persistent and significant inflation. Beg…     

INSTITUTIONS AND (SHORT-RUN) MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

Abstract. This paper reviews the growing interest in institutions. It argues that the explanation for this interest is a fresh awareness of how institutions affect economic performance. This connection arises because many economic interaction take the form of one or other of three 'classic' games (prisoners' dilemma, coordination and chicken) and the outcome in these games (and hence performance of the economy) is influenced by the institutional context of these interactions. The paper provides a detailed illustration of this argument with a survey of the literature which relates unemployment performances to the institutions of wage setting in OECD countries.     

Macroeconomic Shocks and Banking Regulation

The recent crisis has brought to the fore the cyclical properties of banking regulation. Countercyclical buffers and enhanced capital requirements meant to stabilize banks’ balance sheets across the cycle are not costless, and a delicate balance needs to be reached between providing incentives to generate value and discouraging excessive risk taking. The paper develops a model in which, in contrast with Modigliani–Miller, outside equity and capital requirements matter. It analyses banking regulation in the presence of macroeconomic shocks and studies the desirability of self‐insurance mechanisms such as countercyclical capital buffers or dynamic provisioning, as well as “macro‐hedges” such as CoCos and capital insurance.     

Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa

This paper examines the effects of financial and trade liberalization on growth volatility of real output and consumption in Africa. Our results suggest trade liberalization is associated with greater output and consumption growth volatility while financial liberalization increases the efficacy of consumption smoothing and stabilizes income and consumption growth. In addition, we find financial market depth and institutional quality operate jointly with trade and financial openness to reduce volatility in output and consumption growth. There is also evidence that good institutions which foster low inflation levels and volatility promote consumption and output growth stability.